Newmont has doubled its gold reserves, trimmed debt, and secured long-life, low-cost assets through the Newcrest acquisition.
Yet the stock’s still ~30% below its 2022 peak and trading at ~12x forward earnings, a discount that assumes flat output and margin pressure that no longer reflect reality.
Production guidance is back. Capex is peaking. And with spot gold holding above $2,300/oz, Newmont’s setup now combines size, stability, and upside leverage to one of the strongest pricing environments in a decade.
This isn’t about chasing a cyclical pop, it’s about owning a globally diversified asset base with improving fundamentals and embedded optionality.
The balance sheet has stabilized, synergies are starting to flow, and volume growth is in sight across Australia, Ghana, and Canada. The stock hasn’t caught up, yet.
Action: Accumulate shares under $42 before Q4 integration benefits and gold-linked margin upside drive a re-rating. Upside toward $50+ with gold above $2,200 and production volume back on track.
Why the Market Overcorrected and What Comes Next
Newmont’s stock underperformed from 2022 through mid-2024, weighed down by inflationary pressure, operational setbacks, and the Newcrest acquisition hangover.
Supply chain delays and cost overruns at legacy mines dragged margins, while the Newcrest deal triggered dilution and execution risk.
The setup looked messy, and the market traded it that way – like a bloated miner with too many moving parts and no cost control. But that view is stuck in the past.
Three things have started to flip sentiment:
Gold is holding above $2,300/oz, with central banks still net buyers and macro uncertainty driving demand for hard assets.
Synergies from Newcrest are now showing up with management reaffirming $500 million in annual pre-tax benefits and better jurisdictional mix.
Free cash flow is recovering thanks to disciplined capex, improved grades, and ramping volumes across Tier 1 assets in Canada, Ghana, and Australia.
The integration story is no longer theoretical. Operational execution is improving quarter by quarter, and Newmont is positioned to convert stable output into expanding margins as gold prices stay elevated. The multiple hasn’t caught up.
Tier 1 Production Is the Spark
Newmont doesn’t need exploration luck to unlock value, it already owns the assets. What’s changing now is how those mines are being optimized and scaled post-acquisition.
The standout catalyst is the ramp-up across five Tier 1 gold districts: Boddington, Cadia, Ahafo, Éléonore, and Red Chris. These are high-margin, long-life operations in mining-friendly regions, and they now form a more efficient portfolio than pre-merger.
Key advantages:
Lower AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost): Consolidated cost per ounce is expected to fall in 2025 as legacy inflationary drag fades and Newcrest synergies accelerate.
Improved ore quality: Cadia and Red Chris bring better grades and metallurgical profiles, helping expand gross margins.
Capital visibility: Peak investment has passed. Major buildouts are complete, and sustaining capex is manageable under current gold prices.
This is a margin expansion story rooted in integration, mix shift, and asset quality. If execution holds, earnings leverage to spot prices becomes exponential.
The market may still be pricing me like it’s 2023, but with execution lining up and gold staying strong, that disconnect won’t last forever. Re-rating is a matter of when, not if.
Capital Returns Are Picking Up Speed
Newmont’s capital return profile is finally gaining traction. Management has stabilized the balance sheet, and now the capital allocation flywheel is turning again, this time with more discipline.
The company’s dividend framework is linked to gold prices, but the floor yield (~4%) is already one of the highest among large-cap miners. What’s changed recently is management’s tone: after two years of defense, they’re signalling offense.
Buybacks were reinstated in 2024 and accelerated into 2025. That shift reflects confidence in cash flow durability post-Newcrest and puts a floor under valuation during any temporary gold pullbacks.
More important is where the capital is not going. Newmont’s pivot away from high-risk exploration and mega-project bloat shows a clear focus on returns over empire-building. This is a management team choosing to optimize, not sprawl.
Passive index flows could provide a kicker. With Newcrest fully absorbed, GDX rebalancing and broader ETF ownership are back in play. That kind of structural bid can magnify upside as margins expand.
From where I sit, this is the kind of capital discipline that actually moves the needle. I don’t need management to chase moonshot discoveries or reinvent the wheel, I need them to protect margins, reward shareholders, and avoid value-destructive decisions.
That’s exactly what they’re doing. The renewed buybacks and post-Newcrest integration signal a smarter, leaner Newmont that knows how to play the long game. And if passive flows pick up steam as expected, the setup only gets stronger.
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Sector Tailwinds Are Stacking Up
Gold demand has quietly shifted from retail-driven spikes to institutional and central bank accumulation. That’s a more durable floor, and Newmont is built to capitalize on it.
Gold above $2,300 is already improving earnings leverage across the portfolio. But what’s changed more meaningfully is the quality of demand. Central banks are stacking reserves at a record pace.
Geopolitical uncertainty, soft-landing debates, and fiscal strain are all pushing capital toward real assets.
Copper exposure adds a second layer. Newmont isn’t a pure-play, but its assets in Chile and Australia give it direct leverage to energy transition and grid infrastructure themes. Copper’s setup is tighter than gold’s, and pricing could surge if supply disappoints.
This is no longer a bet on price spikes. It’s a bet on scarcity, capital discipline, and asset mix. Gold and copper are both undercapitalized globally, and Newmont is positioned to scale responsibly without chasing frothy projects or leaning on leverage.
Risks and Re-Rating Potential
No miner is immune to macro shocks, and Newmont’s resurgence comes with caveats. A sudden spike in energy costs could pressure margins, even with a more efficient portfolio.
Commodity prices remain volatile, and while gold is firm, a sudden correction could dampen sentiment. The sheer scale of the Newcrest integration still carries execution risk, and any operational missteps could reset expectations quickly.
But here’s what supports the bullish case: Newmont trades at just ~12x forward earnings, pays a compelling dividend, and continues to generate strong free cash flow.
Compared to peers with shakier portfolios or higher debt loads, that’s a valuation floor that gives the stock downside protection and upside if momentum holds.
From where I sit, the story is shifting. Newmont isn’t swinging for the fences with high-risk exploration or bloated mega-projects. Management has made a hard pivot toward capital discipline and operational focus.
Final Word: Betting on the Rebuilders
Newmont isn’t trying to reinvent itself; it’s rebuilding credibility, consistency, and cash flow. And it’s doing it well.
After a rough patch marked by rising costs and murky guidance, Newmont is back on the offensive: reinstating forecasts, raising its dividend, tightening operations, and leading the pack in Tier 1 asset quality. The market, meanwhile, still hasn’t fully caught up.
This is the kind of late-cycle value setup that gets re-rated as soon as earnings consistency kicks in. Newmont is what value investors look for: a category leader trading below its intrinsic value, with improving visibility and strong fundamentals.
If management keeps delivering and commodity prices stay supportive, this could be the cleanest miner turnaround play on the board.
Action Recap
✅ Buy Zone: Accumulate under $44 while the integration narrative remains underappreciated.
✅ Catalyst to Watch: Copper revenue visibility, gold stability, and further synergy unlocks from the Newcrest acquisition.
✅ Medium-Term Target: $53–$56 based on 6%+ FCF yield and multiple compression across peers.
✅ Risk Management Tip: Watch cost inflation and regional political headlines, particularly in PNG and West Africa. If AISC balloons or jurisdiction risk escalates, reduce sizing until stability returns.
I’ve followed enough commodity stocks to know when the narrative is stuck in the rearview. What I see in Newmont right now is an operator with margin levers, a fortress asset base, and clear copper optionality that’s still not getting priced in.
This is a bet on disciplined execution, rising cash flow, and a clean capital return story finally getting credit. I’d rather own the best house in a recovering neighborhood than chase momentum in an overhyped sector.
Newmont’s setup checks every box for the kind of mispriced quality I want to be long heading into 2026.
That’s our coverage for today, thanks for reading! Reply to this email with feedback or any names you want us to dig into next.
Best Regards,
—Noah Zelvis
Undervalued Edge
